Southampton vs Liverpool: Betting Insights, Preview, and Predictions

The Saints are in chaos after Martin’s sacking—will they find redemption in the EFL Cup or face more heartbreak against the defending champions?
Southampton Liverpool

What had long seemed inevitable finally happened on Sunday night—Southampton let go of manager Russell Martin after a rough 5-0 loss to Tottenham, with all five goals coming before halftime. Sitting at the bottom of the Premier League table with just five points from 16 games, the Saints really need a pick-me-up. Their fans are hoping the EFL Cup quarter-final against Liverpool can bring a little spark to the gloom.

Under-21 manager Simon Rusk is stepping in on an interim basis and has the tough job of trying to pull off an upset against the reigning EFL Cup champs. Southampton last made it this far two seasons ago but fell in the semi-finals, and they were runners-up back in 2016/17. But pulling off something like that again seems like a long shot given their current form and a rough record of 12 losses in their last 14 matches against Liverpool.

Meanwhile, Liverpool is sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League and their UEFA Champions League group, but their recent performances haven’t been as dominant as you might think. The Reds were held to a second straight league draw on Saturday (2-2 against Fulham), playing most of the game with ten men after Andy Robertson’s early red card. Manager Arne Slot’s frustration boiled over too, earning him a booking and a touchline ban for this quarter-final clash.

Liverpool has already snagged a win on the south coast in this competition, beating Brighton 3-2 in the last round. As ten-time EFL Cup champions and winners of the trophy in two of the last three seasons, Liverpool is the clear favorite to move on and add another chapter to their impressive history in the competition.

Head-to-Head Stats

Total Matches: 112
Southampton Wins: 30
Liverpool Wins: 59
Draws: 23

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability

The bookmakers have Liverpool as the clear favorites:
Southampton: 15/2 (11.8%)
Draw: 5/1 (16.7%)
Liverpool: 4/11 (73.3%)
(Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change.)

Don’t miss out—click below for the best odds and exclusive bonuses!

Players to Watch

Southampton’s Adam Armstrong will be looking to make an impact again, having scored, assisted, and missed a penalty in their recent 3-2 league loss to the Reds. He’s on a mission to score in his third straight home match against Liverpool. On the flip side, Cody Gakpo is becoming Liverpool’s EFL Cup star, scoring twice in each of their two games in the competition this season—all four goals coming in the second half.

Match Facts

Southampton has a 27% win rate against Liverpool in all competitions.
The Reds have won three of their last five matches.
Southampton has lost three of their last five games in all competitions.

Hot Stat: Liverpool has scored 2+ goals in ten of their last 11 matches, showing off their attacking strength even when they’re not at their best.

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