Newcastle vs Arsenal: Betting Insights, Preview, and Predictions

Newcastle is on the brink of a Wembley return! Can the Magpies finish the job against Arsenal and secure their spot in the Carabao Cup final?

February 4, 2025
7:20 pm

Newcastle United is just 90 minutes away from their second Carabao Cup final in three seasons! After a solid 2-0 win in the first leg against Arsenal, the Magpies are feeling good about reaching Wembley and ending their long wait for silverware—their last major domestic trophy was back in 1955.

A draw or even a one-goal loss would be enough for Eddie Howe’s squad to move on, but back-to-back home losses have raised some eyebrows. Their latest hiccup was a 2-1 defeat to Fulham after they took an early lead. On the bright side, Newcastle has won three of their last four home games against Arsenal, which should boost their confidence for this match.

On the flip side, Arsenal is riding high after a stunning 5-1 thrashing of Manchester City over the weekend. That win kept them firmly in the Premier League title race, but now they need to focus on overcoming a two-goal deficit to reach their first Carabao Cup final since 2017/18.

The Gunners haven’t won this competition since 1992/93, and history isn’t on their side—they haven’t beaten Newcastle by three or more goals away from home since 2010. Still, Mikel Arteta’s squad has won six of their last eight away matches in all competitions, and they’ve scored at least three goals in each of their Carabao Cup wins leading up to the semi-finals.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability

HOME: 23/10 (30.3%)
DRAW: 11/4 (26.7%)
AWAY: 5/4 (44.4%)

(Odds via Ladbrokes, subject to change.)

Best Odds

Newcastle to win @ 23/10
Over 2.5 goals @ 17/20
Alexander Isak to score @ 11/2

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Players to Watch

Alexander Isak has been Newcastle’s star, scoring first in both meetings this season.
Ethan Nwaneri is making the most of his chance with Bukayo Saka out, netting seven times this season. His stoppage-time goal against City was his third late strike in four matches.

Head-to-Head and Key Stats

Arsenal has won 85 of the 195 matchups between these two teams, while Newcastle has 71 wins.
The Gunners are unbeaten in their last six matches across all competitions.
Arsenal has won their last four matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just twice.
Newcastle has won their last two meetings with Arsenal, bouncing back from a 4-1 loss in February 2023.

Hot Stat: Only one of the last 14 head-to-heads has seen both teams score.