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For the fourth season in a row, Manchester City is up against Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages! This time, though, it’s in the knockout play-off round, which means one of these giants won’t even make it to the last 16. City isn’t feeling too confident after a shaky 2-1 win over League One Leyton Orient in the FA Cup and a tough 5-1 loss to Arsenal in their last Premier League match.
Things could’ve been worse against Orient for Pep Guardiola’s squad, who were down for a big part of the game. Plus, they’ve conceded the first goal in their last two home games, showing they’re a bit fragile right now. Real Madrid might not be the best opponent, especially since City has been knocked out by them more than any other club (three times!).
Usually, a match against City means a fierce battle, but Real is probably feeling pretty good about their chances this time. They’ve knocked out an English club in each of the last four UCL campaigns. Like City, they also conceded first over the weekend but managed to fight back for a 1-1 draw against their city rivals, Atlético Madrid, keeping them at the top of La Liga.
Now, they’re back to focusing on the UCL, where they haven’t been knocked out in the first knockout round since 2019/20. Ironically, it was Manchester City who sent them packing back then, winning both legs 2-1. With a not-so-great away record against English clubs, more heartbreak could be on the horizon, especially since their last three UCL eliminations were at the hands of English teams. But given City’s overall form this season, that would still be a big surprise.
HOME: 5/4 (2.25) – 44.4%
DRAW: 11/4 (3.75) – 26.7%
AWAY: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
(Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change.)
Real Madrid to win @19/10
Goals over 3.5 @6/5
Kylian Mbappé to score @11/2
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Manchester City’s Bernardo Silva has scored more career goals against Watford (five) than against Real Madrid (four), netting in the home leg two of the last three times these teams faced off in the knockouts.
Real Madrid’s Rodrygo has a career-high four goals against City – two of those came last season, and both were before the 15th minute!
Manchester City:
City comes into this match with three wins and two losses in their last five games. They faced Leyton Orient in the FA Cup on Saturday and, despite an early scare going down 1-0, they bounced back with goals from Rico Lewis and Kevin De Bruyne to win 2-1.
Before that, Pep Guardiola’s team suffered a 5-1 defeat to Arsenal, following a 3-1 win over Club Brugge (thanks to Mateo Kovačić, Sávio, and an own goal) and a 3-1 victory against Chelsea, with goals from Joško Gvardiol, Erling Haaland, and Phil Foden.
Those results came after a 4-2 loss to PSG in the Champions League, where City blew a 2-0 lead after goals from Jack Grealish and Haaland.
Real Madrid:
Real Madrid rolls into this match with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five games. They faced Atlético Madrid over the weekend and ended up with a 1-1 draw, with Kylian Mbappé scoring.
Before that, Madrid beat Leganés 3-2 in the Copa del Rey, thanks to goals from Luka Modrić, Endrick, and Gonzalo García. They also had a 1-0 loss to Espanyol and back-to-back 3-0 wins over Brest and Real Valladolid, with Mbappé, Rodrygo, and Jude Bellingham finding the net in those matches.
Hot stat: Manchester City hasn’t conceded a UCL goal in the first 30 minutes this season.
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