Aston Villa vs Man City: Betting Insights, Preview, and Predictions

Both teams are coming off some tough late losses. Can Villa use their home advantage to take down a struggling City?

December 20, 2024
1:13 pm

Aston Villa’s comeback hit a little bump last weekend when they fell 2-1 to Nottingham Forest, ending their three-game winning streak. It was only the second time this season that Villa lost after scoring first, and they’re eager to bounce back as they welcome Manchester City to Villa Park.

Currently sitting seventh in the Premier League, Villa could leapfrog City with a win, which would boost their confidence after last season’s 1-0 victory in this matchup. Plus, Unai Emery’s squad is unbeaten in seven home league games, but they haven’t managed back-to-back home wins against City since 1993—so it’s a big challenge ahead!

On the flip side, Manchester City is in a bit of a pickle after conceding late in their own 2-1 loss to rivals Manchester United on Sunday. Even though they’ve historically dominated Villa—winning 81 of 181 meetings and scoring more Premier League goals against them than almost any other team—City’s current form is a bit worrisome.

Pep Guardiola’s crew has only won once in their last 11 matches across all competitions, and Sunday’s loss was their eighth in that stretch. Guardiola himself said after the derby that “something feels wrong” with his team, and with their 2023/24 season shaping up to be their worst in nearly two decades, a trip to Villa Park is going to be tough.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

Bookmakers are slightly favoring Manchester City despite their struggles:

Aston Villa: 23/10 (30.3%)
Draw: 11/4 (26.7%)
Manchester City: 23/20 (46.5%)
(Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change.)

Best Odds and Betting Tips

Match to end in a draw @ 12/5
Jhon Durán to score anytime @ 13/5
Over 3 goals in the match @ 20/21

Don’t miss out – click below for the best odds and exclusive bonuses!

Players to Watch

Villa’s Jhon Durán has been on fire under Emery, scoring in his last three games and netting against City when they last faced off. On the other hand, City’s Phil Foden is a key player but has had a tough time finishing, taking 24 shots without scoring this season—the most of any Premier League player.

Head-to-Head and Key Numbers

Villa won this exact fixture 1-0 last season but haven’t had back-to-back home wins against City since 1989.
City has racked up 30 Premier League wins over Villa—their second-most against any team after Newcastle United.
Villa is unbeaten in their last seven home league matches but has lost four of their last seven Premier League games overall.
City has faced eight losses in their last 11 matches, the same number they had in their previous 106 games!

Hot Stat: Manchester City has lost two of their last three Premier League matches when leading at half-time, something they haven’t done three times in a single season since 2003/04.